***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 32.4 37.4 -0.4 0.2 1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.0 -1.3 28.8 33.5 -0.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 0.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.2 31.5 35.7 1.0 1.9 2.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -6.2 -5.8 -3.7 -1.4 29.1 34.7 -5.6 -4.7 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.8 -1.1 31.3 38.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.6 -4.6 -0.4 41.4 44.4 -2.1 -1.4 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -1.2 -1.0 -1.3 29.5 34.3 -0.6 0.0 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -7.8 -4.7 -0.7 38.8 41.5 -8.1 -6.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 0.7 -0.7 -2.3 -0.8 35.6 40.9 -1.1 0.2 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 -4.0 -0.8 36.2 40.3 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 0.4 -0.6 -3.2 -0.7 36.5 41.6 -0.8 0.1 0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -1.5 -3.8 -0.6 40.0 42.6 -2.2 -1.0 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.5 -3.7 -0.4 40.3 44.6 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -2.8 -1.1 31.9 37.3 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 0.5 -1.0 -2.1 -0.8 33.8 39.5 -1.0 0.2 1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 -3.6 -0.7 37.4 42.1 -0.5 0.5 1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 26.6 31.1 -0.8 0.0 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -2.6 -4.7 -1.0 36.1 39.0 -2.9 -1.7 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 29.3 34.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -6.8 -4.9 -5.9 -0.7 38.9 41.8 -6.2 -4.3 -3.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -1.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 32.5 38.4 -1.1 0.1 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.3 -1.5 27.3 31.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 30.5 36.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -1.3 -1.3 -2.9 -1.1 34.3 37.7 -1.3 -0.1 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -1.1 32.2 37.1 -1.6 -0.1 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.7 -3.8 -0.3 42.8 45.7 -1.0 0.1 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -1.5 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 32.9 37.4 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -2.5 -3.2 -1.2 31.3 36.3 -2.4 -1.2 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -4.4 -4.3 -5.2 -0.8 37.5 40.4 -4.5 -3.5 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -0.9 -0.8 -1.2 30.3 34.8 -0.6 0.1 1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------