***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.0 46.6 48.9 -0.1 1.2 2.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -0.3 0.0 1.7 -0.1 45.9 48.1 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.3 1.6 -0.1 44.7 48.1 1.7 2.6 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -5.0 -4.4 -1.4 -0.3 39.7 48.0 -4.7 -3.9 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.1 43.1 49.5 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.7 -0.9 -3.1 0.2 46.2 51.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 1.2 0.3 1.7 0.0 48.0 48.7 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -7.2 -6.1 -2.9 0.2 44.8 51.4 -7.1 -5.6 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.1 45.0 50.2 -0.2 0.5 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -0.3 0.4 -2.1 0.2 45.4 51.0 -0.4 0.7 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 -1.8 0.0 44.3 50.4 -0.6 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.3 0.2 44.3 51.4 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -0.3 0.0 -2.4 0.3 45.2 52.5 -0.3 0.6 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 0.3 1.0 -0.4 0.3 46.4 51.5 0.5 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.3 40.4 47.8 0.2 1.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 0.4 0.8 -2.2 0.1 43.6 51.2 0.0 1.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.5 1.7 0.0 47.8 48.4 -0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -2.1 -1.2 -2.7 0.3 44.6 52.3 -1.6 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.6 1.6 -0.1 45.9 48.2 -0.4 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -2.5 -3.0 -4.1 0.6 49.4 54.1 -4.5 -3.0 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.9 0.0 44.7 49.2 -0.5 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.1 1.4 0.0 45.6 48.3 -0.2 0.3 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 0.8 0.2 1.3 0.0 47.7 49.4 -0.4 0.3 0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 0.1 43.3 50.4 -0.1 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 44.6 48.6 -0.2 0.8 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.4 -2.6 0.2 47.9 52.2 -0.3 0.4 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.7 1.2 0.0 46.9 49.3 -0.2 0.9 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.3 39.4 48.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -2.3 -3.2 0.4 46.5 52.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -0.2 0.4 1.7 -0.1 45.8 48.1 -0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------