***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.9 28.1 36.0 -0.8 1.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -2.1 24.2 32.8 -0.8 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 0.2 1.1 -0.9 -1.9 27.2 35.2 1.2 2.9 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -7.3 -5.5 -4.0 -2.1 25.4 33.4 -4.7 -3.3 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -3.4 -1.8 29.0 35.7 -1.2 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -5.0 -1.2 33.4 40.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -2.1 24.5 33.2 -0.9 0.8 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -9.2 -8.6 -5.1 -1.5 29.7 37.9 -8.3 -5.7 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -0.4 -2.8 -1.7 29.7 36.3 -0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 -1.0 -0.5 -4.4 -1.6 29.2 36.9 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -1.8 -0.6 -3.9 -1.5 29.4 37.1 -0.3 0.5 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -2.5 -4.2 -1.3 30.6 39.4 -2.0 -0.2 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.7 -4.4 -1.2 32.0 40.9 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 -3.1 -1.7 28.2 36.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 -2.8 -1.8 26.3 33.9 -0.7 1.4 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 -4.2 -1.4 30.4 38.5 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 -1.4 -2.0 -1.3 -2.3 22.4 31.0 -0.6 1.0 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -2.5 -5.0 -1.5 30.0 38.3 -2.2 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.1 24.5 33.2 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -7.0 -7.1 -6.4 -1.4 31.4 40.0 -6.9 -4.0 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 -1.7 -1.8 29.1 35.8 -0.2 1.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -1.5 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 21.9 31.2 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -2.0 24.8 33.8 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 -3.3 -1.7 28.3 36.6 -1.0 0.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.5 -2.0 28.5 34.9 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.7 -1.0 -4.4 -1.0 34.0 41.8 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9 28.5 35.9 -0.1 1.0 1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 -2.8 -2.3 -3.6 -1.9 25.9 34.2 -1.7 -0.7 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -3.4 -5.4 -1.4 30.6 39.1 -3.3 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 25.6 33.8 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------