***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 -3.2 -1.9 -2.3 -2.0 28.1 36.0 -0.7 0.5 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 -3.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 26.7 34.6 -1.4 -0.6 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 -2.2 -2.0 27.0 35.6 0.3 1.5 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -7.2 -6.1 -5.4 -2.5 23.7 32.8 -4.9 -4.2 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 -3.3 -2.7 -4.3 -2.1 25.4 35.6 -2.1 -0.7 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -3.3 -6.3 -1.6 32.8 39.2 -3.3 -1.6 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 -2.1 26.6 34.9 -1.2 -0.5 1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -8.2 -7.9 -6.2 -1.7 31.6 38.6 -7.6 -6.2 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -1.5 -4.0 -1.8 25.6 37.5 -1.3 0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -5.6 -1.8 28.1 37.7 -1.4 0.0 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 -4.7 -1.8 27.6 37.6 -1.5 -0.2 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 -3.9 -2.6 -5.3 -1.7 29.9 38.4 -2.3 -1.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -2.8 -1.8 -5.2 -1.7 30.0 37.9 -1.4 -0.7 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -1.6 -0.8 -4.5 -2.2 27.5 35.6 -0.6 0.4 1.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -2.4 -3.8 -1.9 26.8 35.4 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -5.2 -1.9 28.2 36.5 -0.7 -0.1 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -3.6 -3.8 -2.8 -2.4 23.6 33.2 -1.2 -0.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 -6.1 -2.0 29.3 37.6 -3.4 -1.8 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 -2.8 -2.4 -2.5 -2.0 26.5 34.9 -1.3 -0.5 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -7.9 -7.4 -7.1 -1.5 36.0 41.3 -8.2 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -2.9 -2.0 25.3 36.0 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -3.1 -2.8 -2.4 23.0 33.1 -1.5 -0.3 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 -2.5 -1.9 -2.6 -1.9 27.2 36.0 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -2.7 -1.3 -4.4 -2.1 27.5 36.0 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 -2.9 -2.0 -3.5 -2.3 26.3 34.9 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -2.4 -2.4 -5.2 -1.4 32.4 40.4 -2.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.8 -2.1 27.9 35.7 -1.4 -0.1 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -3.9 -3.8 -5.0 -2.4 24.9 33.4 -3.4 -2.2 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -5.0 -3.9 -6.7 -1.8 31.5 38.7 -3.9 -1.8 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 -3.0 -1.9 -2.3 -2.0 27.9 35.4 -1.0 -0.4 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------