***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 18.1 17.5 30.1 64.9 25.3 28.8 18.8 26.5 35.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 16.0 13.6 26.1 61.9 24.3 27.4 16.4 30.4 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.1 19.4 30.3 65.4 25.3 28.5 24.6 30.3 43.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 24.1 20.3 37.4 69.5 28.5 30.8 24.2 34.0 52.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.6 38.2 72.2 27.9 31.6 24.6 33.0 47.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 21.0 20.1 42.1 78.7 32.4 35.5 20.2 31.3 39.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 15.0 12.2 25.3 61.3 23.8 27.1 19.8 28.5 31.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 44.8 45.0 43.2 74.9 28.7 31.7 48.5 60.3 72.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 20.2 18.9 38.8 72.5 28.8 31.3 20.7 30.7 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.7 28.3 43.6 76.0 29.8 32.6 28.8 38.6 42.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 17.9 19.1 38.5 72.7 27.4 31.0 22.4 31.7 41.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 19.4 17.8 38.0 72.5 26.9 30.2 23.2 30.6 39.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 25.1 19.7 41.8 75.2 26.8 32.5 21.5 36.3 44.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 32.1 29.6 39.9 67.4 24.5 27.9 36.5 50.4 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 12.4 8.1 32.4 64.4 25.5 28.7 15.5 28.8 51.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 21.7 19.5 38.9 73.1 27.1 31.4 22.1 31.1 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 14.5 13.0 25.8 62.6 25.1 28.1 19.4 27.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 23.8 24.5 45.7 76.3 29.8 32.7 25.2 36.5 42.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.6 15.6 27.0 62.2 24.5 27.4 23.5 32.0 39.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 22.1 21.2 53.1 74.3 28.4 31.5 22.8 31.3 42.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 16.3 16.1 34.9 69.3 27.6 29.8 17.7 35.0 47.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 18.9 15.5 27.6 63.5 25.2 28.2 22.2 30.6 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.8 16.3 29.3 63.0 25.2 27.4 22.0 31.7 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 25.6 29.1 39.5 71.4 27.4 30.5 32.1 38.6 63.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 18.6 15.0 36.4 68.7 26.0 30.1 21.2 28.3 48.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 19.8 17.8 38.6 71.7 25.6 30.4 23.6 31.3 36.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 16.3 17.3 32.5 66.2 24.5 28.9 20.8 26.0 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 15.4 13.2 36.1 70.0 28.6 31.2 13.8 24.5 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 39.7 37.2 47.8 75.3 28.7 32.2 38.1 49.8 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 18.5 14.6 26.8 62.4 25.4 27.8 19.4 33.8 36.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------