***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.0 12.9 107.8 63.9 52.4 0.9 3.0 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.9 11.8 109.0 63.0 52.3 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.9 12.4 108.0 62.7 53.0 3.1 5.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.4 14.0 103.1 59.1 49.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.6 5.7 13.7 102.6 61.0 50.0 1.5 3.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.5 15.3 109.0 63.7 52.6 1.2 3.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.1 5.0 11.4 107.1 64.6 51.6 1.0 2.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.6 15.6 112.4 64.8 53.5 9.9 12.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.5 14.2 105.0 63.2 51.4 1.6 4.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.5 9.6 15.6 110.2 65.1 53.2 3.4 4.9 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.0 7.2 13.6 104.7 61.2 50.5 1.3 3.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.2 13.9 109.1 63.6 52.2 2.5 3.2 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 14.7 106.4 61.4 52.0 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.4 15.3 105.8 61.4 52.6 2.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.6 3.0 12.8 99.9 58.4 48.5 0.1 1.3 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.9 13.6 102.1 59.8 50.1 1.7 2.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.6 11.2 106.4 62.4 49.9 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.3 16.2 111.2 65.5 55.1 2.0 4.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 6.3 12.0 110.0 62.9 53.0 1.5 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.8 18.9 110.3 61.2 54.2 3.0 4.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.5 13.3 105.4 63.1 51.5 1.4 5.2 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.7 12.2 110.1 61.3 51.3 0.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.1 6.1 12.6 109.7 64.8 53.6 0.7 2.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.3 14.6 108.5 65.2 54.0 2.5 5.5 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.7 14.4 105.9 62.5 51.5 0.9 5.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.6 14.2 106.9 58.5 52.4 0.8 2.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 6.4 13.7 107.6 63.2 52.1 1.1 3.6 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.0 13.5 103.1 59.4 49.2 1.2 2.4 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.3 17.0 111.3 65.2 55.3 4.2 9.8 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.2 12.1 110.1 63.8 53.1 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------