***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.9 10.3 76.4 44.8 41.0 3.6 6.0 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.6 9.4 77.0 49.1 42.6 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.0 10.3 77.6 46.3 41.7 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.9 13.5 92.5 54.0 47.4 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.7 13.5 93.1 53.6 47.5 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.3 4.9 13.6 94.6 57.2 47.1 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.2 9.1 76.4 47.6 42.7 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.0 15.6 14.8 96.2 55.5 47.4 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.4 13.5 88.9 53.1 46.1 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.1 14.5 92.0 53.8 46.5 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.2 13.6 97.4 56.1 48.1 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.2 13.5 97.6 55.5 47.7 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.1 14.4 98.6 54.9 47.7 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.1 4.8 13.0 75.7 44.4 41.2 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.7 12.1 85.7 51.5 45.1 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.7 13.8 98.9 56.5 48.1 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.0 9.9 82.5 52.5 44.9 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.9 14.9 88.3 51.1 44.7 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.8 9.5 75.5 47.8 41.9 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.2 18.9 93.9 53.3 46.9 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.1 12.1 84.6 51.0 44.1 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.7 10.5 82.7 53.1 44.5 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.5 9.9 73.6 44.8 41.3 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.6 8.2 12.9 81.7 49.5 43.0 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.4 12.5 83.3 47.9 43.7 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.1 14.2 98.0 54.4 48.4 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.4 11.1 78.0 44.8 41.7 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.6 13.1 93.7 54.6 47.3 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.3 15.8 88.2 50.7 45.0 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.2 9.3 75.2 47.1 41.7 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------