***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.2 1.1 4.5 40.7 32.9 29.4 1.1 6.0 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.2 3.4 33.2 27.8 25.8 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.7 4.8 41.1 31.5 29.1 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.7 3.7 6.0 45.3 33.2 30.3 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.3 7.1 54.2 37.1 33.9 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.4 8.3 65.1 41.4 38.4 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 3.1 1.3 3.4 34.3 27.4 26.4 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.7 8.7 7.4 50.8 32.7 30.8 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.0 7.1 53.2 38.0 33.2 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.7 5.6 7.7 54.9 36.9 33.4 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.5 3.5 6.9 51.6 35.3 32.1 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.9 3.4 6.5 48.4 32.3 29.6 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.7 4.3 7.2 54.2 33.2 32.2 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.3 7.2 50.4 33.2 32.4 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.7 0.4 3.9 32.2 29.2 25.4 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 3.1 7.2 54.7 35.6 33.0 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 2.7 3.1 3.4 34.3 28.7 27.0 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 7.0 8.7 58.6 39.7 35.1 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.6 3.6 3.7 34.7 28.5 26.1 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.9 9.1 49.2 32.5 29.6 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 3.7 6.2 48.6 38.1 32.4 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.3 3.8 3.4 33.6 27.9 25.2 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.4 38.8 29.7 27.5 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.1 7.4 53.8 36.9 33.4 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.9 2.4 6.4 49.2 35.7 32.7 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.9 2.5 6.3 47.1 29.3 28.2 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.4 1.7 5.3 44.9 33.4 30.9 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.4 42.7 32.8 29.4 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 10.4 9.0 56.1 37.9 33.7 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.5 2.3 3.6 34.5 28.5 26.4 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------