***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.8 2.4 24.0 23.0 20.0 2.6 6.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.6 17.8 20.2 17.9 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.8 27.7 25.8 21.7 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.8 3.1 3.9 31.4 28.6 23.6 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.1 2.2 3.9 32.7 25.6 23.8 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.3 1.9 4.8 39.2 29.8 27.2 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.4 16.2 20.9 17.3 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.5 6.0 5.4 38.9 25.3 26.0 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.5 4.0 34.7 25.9 24.4 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.0 2.8 5.7 42.4 27.2 27.7 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 1.1 1.9 4.4 34.6 26.1 25.3 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 1.1 1.8 4.2 33.2 25.0 23.7 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.1 5.6 39.9 28.5 27.6 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 2.7 2.1 4.5 33.2 24.9 22.8 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 0.7 0.8 3.7 32.3 34.8 27.2 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.5 1.6 4.3 33.4 25.5 24.6 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.3 14.4 20.1 16.4 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.5 5.9 43.3 26.3 27.3 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.9 19.6 21.5 18.4 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 4.2 3.7 6.1 39.7 24.6 26.1 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 1.3 1.8 3.4 31.4 26.6 23.2 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.4 15.3 21.1 16.2 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 1.1 1.2 2.3 22.9 22.8 19.0 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.0 3.5 4.6 37.3 26.5 25.0 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.4 3.2 27.5 22.4 21.0 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.3 2.0 3.9 30.6 25.4 23.3 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.3 2.4 23.3 21.8 19.6 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 0.6 1.4 4.1 34.3 31.9 26.1 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.0 42.0 26.2 26.7 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 0.8 0.7 1.8 19.6 21.1 18.6 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------