***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 11.5 12.4 10.5 1.9 71.4 69.1 7.1 9.8 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.5 12.0 10.7 2.1 74.7 71.3 6.6 9.1 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 11.6 12.9 10.9 1.8 70.3 68.2 7.3 9.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 4.2 5.6 7.8 1.9 71.5 68.4 0.5 1.7 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.1 12.7 8.8 1.5 66.2 63.8 7.9 9.4 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.3 6.7 1.2 62.7 61.1 7.2 8.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.2 11.9 10.5 2.0 73.4 71.0 6.2 8.9 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.9 7.1 1.1 60.9 60.0 -1.7 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.4 13.1 9.7 1.6 68.6 65.6 8.0 9.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.8 8.1 1.2 61.9 60.8 8.0 10.1 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.1 12.7 8.9 1.4 65.4 63.0 8.2 9.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.9 11.2 8.2 1.3 64.4 62.9 7.5 9.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.2 10.5 7.7 1.1 61.2 60.2 8.2 9.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 10.7 13.4 10.0 1.8 71.5 66.9 7.8 10.1 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 11.4 12.9 9.5 2.5 79.2 74.0 6.6 8.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.0 8.2 1.3 64.2 62.7 8.7 10.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 11.0 11.6 10.5 2.0 74.9 72.0 6.1 8.7 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 11.5 7.8 1.2 62.2 60.8 7.3 9.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 11.5 12.6 10.9 2.1 74.9 71.0 6.5 8.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.0 5.0 0.7 57.2 57.0 3.1 4.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.5 13.0 10.3 1.6 68.2 65.9 8.0 9.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.5 10.7 2.0 76.1 72.1 6.7 9.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.8 13.0 11.1 2.0 75.2 70.4 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.3 12.9 9.7 1.6 67.4 64.7 7.9 9.7 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 9.3 12.1 9.0 1.8 69.0 67.5 6.9 8.6 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.7 11.2 7.2 1.3 64.6 63.6 8.0 9.1 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 11.3 12.3 9.8 1.8 70.6 68.3 7.3 9.2 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.6 13.7 8.5 2.0 72.6 68.9 7.2 8.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 5.3 7.2 6.9 1.1 61.2 59.9 3.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.0 10.7 2.0 73.2 70.7 6.6 8.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------