***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 11.3 1.0 54.6 57.9 10.2 11.0 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.4 11.8 11.3 1.1 56.1 58.5 9.9 11.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.0 12.8 11.6 0.9 56.1 56.8 10.3 12.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 6.0 4.7 8.9 1.0 59.8 57.8 1.1 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.7 13.1 9.6 0.7 56.6 55.5 9.9 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 7.6 0.6 56.3 54.8 8.4 10.8 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 11.3 1.1 56.2 58.9 9.3 10.8 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.1 8.0 0.5 55.5 54.6 -1.6 1.8 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.0 12.9 10.0 0.6 56.2 55.1 9.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.5 12.9 8.9 0.5 55.2 54.3 9.9 12.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.0 9.4 0.6 56.0 55.4 9.8 12.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.9 9.0 0.6 55.8 55.3 9.2 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.8 8.2 0.6 55.6 55.3 10.0 12.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 10.2 0.6 53.5 55.3 10.7 12.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.0 13.3 9.8 1.4 61.8 60.7 9.4 11.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 8.9 0.7 56.4 55.7 10.2 12.9 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.3 11.2 1.0 57.3 58.3 8.8 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 8.6 0.4 54.0 54.3 9.4 12.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.2 11.5 1.0 56.8 58.1 9.8 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.9 5.7 0.3 52.7 53.8 5.0 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.9 12.9 10.9 0.7 55.0 55.6 10.3 12.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 11.3 1.0 58.2 57.8 9.6 12.1 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.7 11.7 0.9 57.0 57.5 9.9 12.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.1 10.1 0.6 55.4 55.1 10.6 12.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.1 12.4 9.7 0.9 56.4 57.6 9.4 11.8 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 8.2 0.9 59.1 57.7 9.8 12.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.5 10.6 0.9 54.9 57.6 10.1 11.1 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.2 13.5 9.2 1.0 59.2 58.1 9.3 12.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.1 7.6 0.4 53.1 54.2 4.2 7.9 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.5 11.4 1.0 56.0 58.4 9.7 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------