***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.9 11.1 1.9 63.0 62.2 7.4 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.0 11.0 1.9 63.5 62.4 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.8 11.5 1.9 62.0 61.9 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 5.4 5.2 8.8 1.9 64.8 62.3 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.1 13.0 9.5 1.6 60.9 60.1 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.9 7.4 1.2 57.8 57.9 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.1 10.9 1.9 63.1 62.2 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.5 1.7 7.9 1.2 57.9 58.0 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 10.0 1.6 60.0 60.0 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.6 8.8 1.4 57.9 58.2 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.0 9.2 1.4 58.3 58.9 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.3 8.8 1.3 58.0 58.9 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.4 7.9 1.1 56.2 57.9 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.7 10.3 1.8 60.8 60.5 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.3 9.6 2.1 67.0 64.1 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.7 8.6 1.3 57.1 58.6 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.0 10.8 1.8 63.0 62.0 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.1 8.6 1.4 56.3 58.2 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.6 11.2 1.9 63.7 62.2 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.8 5.6 0.9 54.7 55.6 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.6 10.8 1.7 61.4 60.8 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.8 10.9 1.8 63.9 61.5 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 11.5 1.9 63.2 62.1 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.1 10.1 1.6 59.0 60.0 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.4 9.5 1.9 63.3 62.3 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.5 7.8 1.3 62.0 60.0 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.5 10.3 1.8 62.8 61.7 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.7 9.0 1.9 64.2 62.0 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.2 7.6 1.2 55.5 57.6 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.3 11.0 1.9 63.3 62.4 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------