***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 10.8 14.0 10.2 2.0 67.5 65.2 6.0 10.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 8.6 12.9 10.6 2.4 68.7 67.3 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 9.4 12.5 10.6 2.1 65.9 64.6 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 3.6 7.4 7.4 2.2 68.1 65.5 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.6 11.7 8.4 1.6 63.7 61.2 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.2 10.3 5.8 0.6 56.2 54.6 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 8.7 12.4 10.4 2.2 68.2 66.3 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.8 2.0 6.6 1.1 61.5 57.5 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.1 12.5 9.5 1.8 63.8 62.5 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.2 11.9 7.6 1.2 59.7 57.8 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.9 12.0 8.6 1.4 63.2 59.7 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.6 12.4 7.7 1.5 64.4 59.6 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.6 7.3 0.8 58.2 55.0 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 9.9 14.4 10.0 2.2 65.8 64.2 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 11.5 14.2 9.5 2.8 74.5 69.5 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.9 12.8 7.7 1.2 61.7 58.2 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 10.1 12.1 10.4 2.4 69.4 68.1 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.8 7.4 1.3 59.9 58.2 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 8.2 13.8 10.8 2.4 68.7 67.0 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.5 4.6 0.6 55.1 54.0 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.8 12.1 10.1 1.8 64.3 62.5 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 8.5 13.2 10.8 2.5 70.5 68.5 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.0 13.9 11.0 2.4 68.9 66.3 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.8 13.4 9.6 1.8 64.7 61.9 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.3 12.0 8.6 1.7 66.3 63.2 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 11.2 6.4 1.1 62.0 57.8 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 9.1 12.0 9.4 1.7 66.7 63.2 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 9.9 15.4 8.2 2.3 69.3 65.6 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.3 6.5 1.2 59.6 57.1 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 9.0 12.5 10.5 2.3 67.8 66.7 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------