***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 7.6 9.9 9.4 2.7 66.3 68.8 4.5 7.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 5.9 8.9 9.8 2.9 66.6 70.2 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 6.8 8.8 9.8 2.6 64.4 67.0 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 3.3 3.3 6.3 2.6 70.4 69.7 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 6.6 8.0 7.6 2.1 60.6 63.9 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 6.7 8.7 6.1 2.2 63.8 65.0 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 5.5 8.1 9.6 2.9 66.8 70.1 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -1.4 0.2 5.9 1.4 56.9 59.4 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 7.2 9.3 9.1 2.6 64.1 66.6 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 7.2 7.8 7.0 1.7 58.5 60.7 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 7.6 8.2 8.2 2.1 60.5 63.8 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 7.5 8.7 7.1 2.0 59.8 63.2 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 7.7 7.8 7.6 1.8 58.7 61.1 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 7.6 9.7 9.4 2.5 63.0 65.9 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 9.9 10.9 9.2 3.5 77.8 77.2 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 7.6 9.5 7.5 2.1 61.9 63.9 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 5.4 9.0 9.5 3.0 68.3 71.4 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 6.8 7.4 6.6 1.7 59.0 60.4 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 6.4 8.8 9.9 2.9 66.2 69.8 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 3.9 3.9 4.2 1.0 56.0 56.4 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 6.6 8.8 9.5 2.4 63.3 66.0 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 6.2 8.5 9.8 2.9 68.3 71.0 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 6.5 9.2 10.1 2.8 66.7 69.3 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 7.4 8.7 9.0 2.2 61.2 63.8 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 5.9 8.4 8.2 2.5 66.8 68.1 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 7.1 9.0 6.2 2.0 61.4 63.3 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 6.5 8.9 8.9 2.7 67.1 69.0 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 9.0 9.8 7.5 2.7 70.9 70.4 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 4.0 5.2 6.0 1.5 58.8 59.7 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 5.6 8.0 9.7 2.9 66.1 69.6 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------