***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 1.9 1.7 2.6 1.2 60.9 61.1 -0.2 0.7 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 2.0 0.8 2.6 1.3 62.2 63.1 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 4.7 3.6 2.7 1.3 64.0 63.0 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -1.6 -3.0 -0.3 1.2 62.1 62.1 -4.7 -3.4 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 0.9 0.1 -0.1 1.1 59.3 61.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 0.3 -0.4 -2.2 1.2 62.2 62.0 -1.7 -0.8 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 2.3 1.2 2.6 1.4 63.1 63.0 -0.5 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -4.2 -5.0 -2.3 0.9 56.0 58.9 -7.2 -6.6 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 2.1 0.9 0.4 1.2 59.9 61.9 -0.2 0.6 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 2.2 1.6 -1.4 1.0 57.7 60.0 -0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 1.8 1.3 -0.8 1.0 59.4 60.5 -0.4 0.9 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.2 -1.5 1.0 57.9 59.9 -1.5 -0.6 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 1.4 1.0 -1.7 1.1 60.7 60.6 -0.2 0.6 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 2.4 2.2 0.4 1.3 62.6 62.9 0.3 1.5 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 2.2 2.2 1.0 1.5 69.2 65.1 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 2.4 1.9 -1.3 1.1 60.7 60.6 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 2.1 1.6 2.5 1.3 62.7 62.8 -0.3 0.6 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.0 -2.0 1.1 58.6 60.2 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 2.2 1.2 2.5 1.4 63.5 63.4 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.9 0.8 55.3 57.5 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.2 60.5 61.7 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 1.4 1.1 2.3 1.3 64.2 62.7 -0.3 0.2 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.4 64.5 63.9 -0.4 0.3 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 1.6 1.4 0.1 1.3 62.4 63.0 -0.1 0.6 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 61.2 61.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 1.5 1.1 -1.9 1.2 59.9 61.0 -0.3 0.4 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 1.5 1.0 2.0 1.2 60.9 61.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.3 64.3 62.7 -1.3 -0.4 -0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -1.8 -2.5 1.0 57.5 59.8 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 1.9 1.3 2.6 1.4 63.0 63.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------