***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 55.1 125.7 75.3 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 37.3 38.2 49.3 117.7 67.2 62.7 16.4 30.4 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 49.2 52.2 57.2 129.3 75.8 68.7 24.6 30.3 43.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 55.2 64.8 66.7 133.3 77.8 68.6 24.2 34.0 52.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 51.5 60.8 66.8 137.5 80.4 71.8 24.6 33.0 47.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 43.3 56.2 74.6 136.4 81.8 71.9 20.2 31.3 39.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 33.8 31.7 47.9 114.5 66.2 61.5 19.8 28.5 31.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 75.3 85.8 72.4 135.3 79.3 71.1 48.5 60.3 72.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 41.7 47.9 65.1 134.3 79.6 71.0 20.7 30.7 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 46.8 54.4 70.7 134.7 80.1 71.4 28.8 38.6 42.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 44.5 52.6 65.0 137.0 80.0 71.1 22.4 31.7 41.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 43.5 52.9 66.2 137.2 80.1 70.5 23.2 30.6 39.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 46.5 55.9 70.6 136.1 81.2 70.8 21.5 36.3 44.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 65.9 68.8 67.6 127.9 72.9 67.8 36.5 50.4 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 55.1 67.0 65.1 133.9 78.5 67.0 15.5 28.8 51.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 44.0 52.1 67.4 136.9 80.4 70.7 22.1 31.1 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 30.8 34.6 45.6 112.9 65.5 60.1 19.4 27.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 48.7 53.8 75.5 131.0 77.1 69.7 25.2 36.5 42.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 38.8 41.8 51.8 120.9 69.7 63.9 23.5 32.0 39.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 44.4 49.4 87.1 125.3 72.4 66.7 22.8 31.3 42.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 46.7 52.4 60.7 133.0 77.0 70.3 17.7 35.0 47.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 32.3 35.1 48.6 116.0 63.2 61.0 22.2 30.6 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 39.0 41.6 56.2 124.6 73.0 65.4 22.0 31.7 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 56.1 66.9 68.1 131.9 77.1 70.1 32.1 38.6 63.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 45.6 55.6 64.3 128.7 75.4 68.7 21.2 28.3 48.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 39.9 46.6 70.4 136.4 80.7 69.7 23.6 31.3 36.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 41.1 46.3 59.1 123.8 74.1 66.5 20.8 26.0 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 52.3 65.4 66.3 135.1 79.8 68.4 13.8 24.5 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 72.4 86.7 79.7 128.2 75.2 68.5 38.1 49.8 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 40.2 37.1 51.3 120.4 68.5 64.0 19.4 33.8 36.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------