***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 155.8 74.7 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.1 4.6 11.7 130.7 68.3 61.0 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.9 8.7 14.3 156.0 74.3 64.3 3.1 5.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.1 12.8 15.3 150.3 78.1 62.5 3.2 5.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.5 11.2 16.0 161.2 79.9 65.4 1.5 3.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 6.7 17.0 138.3 74.7 63.4 1.2 3.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.1 5.4 11.5 130.4 68.1 61.5 1.0 2.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.7 16.9 17.8 160.7 79.2 66.4 9.9 12.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.6 9.8 16.4 165.9 80.7 66.4 1.6 4.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 11.7 16.4 17.8 163.9 81.6 66.6 3.4 4.9 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 9.5 13.3 15.7 163.8 80.5 66.0 1.3 3.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 6.8 8.6 15.8 158.9 77.1 64.8 2.5 3.2 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 6.7 8.8 16.8 151.2 78.8 64.3 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 10.2 12.1 17.1 150.4 76.9 64.4 2.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.7 4.8 13.8 139.4 70.2 59.2 0.1 1.3 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 7.9 11.7 15.7 154.2 79.2 64.3 1.7 2.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.2 4.4 10.7 119.7 67.6 60.1 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 14.1 19.6 158.8 80.4 66.5 2.0 4.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.9 7.0 12.4 136.8 69.6 61.7 1.5 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.6 9.2 22.5 151.7 76.9 66.4 3.0 4.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 6.5 7.5 15.3 164.3 78.7 65.8 1.4 5.2 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.6 5.1 11.5 124.0 70.5 60.6 0.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.6 7.3 13.7 145.8 73.0 62.6 0.7 2.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.7 9.3 17.4 158.4 78.7 65.5 2.5 5.5 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 6.5 7.4 15.9 154.4 76.8 65.0 0.9 5.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.1 6.1 15.6 140.5 70.8 61.8 0.8 2.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.9 7.7 15.1 153.9 75.6 65.1 1.1 3.6 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 3.2 5.4 14.7 146.6 74.3 61.4 1.2 2.4 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.4 15.6 20.8 155.2 78.9 66.5 4.2 9.8 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.7 12.5 138.6 69.3 62.0 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------