***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 15.6 131.7 72.6 62.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 9.6 13.7 122.5 72.0 60.1 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.3 11.1 15.9 129.9 70.9 61.8 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 15.5 19.2 18.4 141.2 76.9 65.5 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 12.2 15.4 18.6 141.7 76.7 66.2 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.1 16.7 20.6 141.5 75.5 66.5 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.6 8.1 13.4 122.8 71.7 59.5 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 20.9 25.0 19.5 134.3 74.8 64.5 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.0 13.6 18.3 138.5 75.1 65.0 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.0 14.0 19.3 134.0 75.7 64.3 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 9.2 12.9 17.6 137.8 75.8 64.8 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 8.1 10.8 17.9 141.6 76.4 65.8 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 12.3 16.8 19.7 145.9 79.2 67.7 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 22.7 19.2 129.4 74.1 62.1 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.5 16.1 132.3 72.5 62.6 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 9.8 13.0 18.5 142.0 77.6 65.9 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.2 7.5 12.5 122.3 73.0 58.9 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 15.0 16.9 21.0 132.1 76.0 63.9 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.8 15.8 14.4 123.7 70.7 60.2 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.4 9.6 23.9 127.0 73.8 63.2 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.3 9.2 17.0 136.9 76.2 64.2 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 9.5 13.4 123.5 70.5 59.6 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.1 13.1 15.8 126.5 71.4 60.7 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.1 22.0 19.1 133.3 74.5 63.1 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 10.5 9.2 18.5 138.4 73.7 64.9 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.9 13.3 19.3 147.0 75.2 66.8 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.8 17.2 134.1 71.8 63.3 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 9.7 11.2 17.6 138.3 74.7 64.5 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.0 22.7 22.1 130.3 75.0 64.1 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.9 11.4 14.4 124.0 70.7 60.6 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------