***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 11.6 106.4 63.4 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.7 10.8 99.1 61.5 50.7 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.3 14.9 11.9 109.4 64.0 55.4 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.8 14.6 14.2 114.1 63.4 55.1 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.4 14.4 120.8 66.6 59.4 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 15.1 13.0 18.8 135.5 72.3 63.0 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.2 11.0 98.0 58.8 50.3 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.1 18.9 16.7 123.4 67.4 60.0 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 13.6 14.1 116.7 65.7 58.3 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.5 15.8 119.8 66.5 59.1 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.4 13.8 14.5 126.2 69.3 60.6 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 14.1 15.4 128.1 69.3 61.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.4 17.2 132.5 68.9 62.7 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.2 14.4 14.2 107.8 62.1 54.8 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 21.2 14.6 118.3 64.2 55.0 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.7 15.6 128.8 69.1 61.6 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.6 10.3 96.3 58.8 50.1 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 10.6 16.6 111.8 60.0 56.5 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.9 100.5 64.2 51.8 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.9 20.5 109.2 59.9 56.3 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.7 12.8 114.6 62.6 57.7 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.6 10.4 95.6 58.9 49.2 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.3 11.5 102.8 64.9 53.0 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.7 14.4 110.4 62.1 56.1 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 13.7 109.8 61.1 55.8 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.6 16.6 127.0 68.9 59.8 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.5 12.7 106.0 62.9 54.3 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.2 14.7 120.5 65.4 56.5 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 16.4 17.9 108.9 62.0 56.0 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.7 11.1 102.2 62.9 52.0 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------