***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 114.9 67.1 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.1 13.0 120.7 67.0 59.7 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 10.3 12.3 15.1 126.3 71.6 61.9 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.9 18.8 130.6 74.1 63.7 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.1 14.5 17.9 130.8 72.5 64.0 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 7.3 14.3 18.2 130.5 70.2 64.1 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.6 12.0 110.1 65.0 56.8 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.7 22.0 18.3 128.0 69.4 62.2 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.0 11.5 16.2 122.5 69.0 60.1 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.0 15.5 17.7 126.8 68.2 61.0 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 6.2 13.9 17.1 126.6 68.3 62.4 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.2 13.8 17.0 125.5 69.9 62.2 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 9.8 14.5 16.9 118.5 69.8 60.8 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.6 17.2 127.1 67.9 60.6 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 8.7 10.1 20.7 145.1 76.2 67.7 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 7.9 9.9 17.6 126.3 69.4 63.3 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.6 12.1 115.1 66.8 58.4 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 8.6 12.4 18.3 125.7 67.4 59.3 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.4 14.0 125.0 68.2 60.7 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 11.7 13.8 20.2 118.5 62.3 59.3 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.3 9.2 15.6 122.7 68.0 61.3 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.1 9.4 13.4 122.1 67.4 59.5 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.5 15.1 126.3 69.5 61.0 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.7 16.1 17.2 129.4 70.3 60.9 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.2 16.3 117.1 68.5 60.5 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.2 11.8 18.8 131.9 70.1 64.6 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 14.1 107.4 63.4 56.6 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 9.4 11.6 19.3 136.7 74.4 65.0 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 17.0 20.2 18.9 122.9 64.8 58.8 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.6 13.3 119.5 67.1 59.6 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------