***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 -1.6 29.1 33.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.2 7.1 -1.7 26.1 32.9 6.6 9.1 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 -1.7 27.8 33.1 7.3 9.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.7 0.4 5.4 -1.6 30.7 34.9 0.5 1.7 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.8 7.6 6.1 -1.6 27.9 34.7 7.9 9.4 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.8 4.6 -1.5 28.0 35.3 7.2 8.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 5.7 6.2 7.0 -1.7 26.9 32.9 6.2 8.9 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 4.9 -1.7 25.6 33.3 -1.7 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.6 6.7 -1.7 26.3 34.2 8.0 9.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 7.1 7.6 5.7 -1.8 25.7 33.4 8.0 10.1 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 6.7 7.9 6.0 -1.6 26.5 34.8 8.2 9.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.1 5.7 -1.6 26.1 33.8 7.5 9.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.9 5.4 -1.5 26.9 34.5 8.2 9.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.2 6.6 -2.0 24.4 31.6 7.8 10.1 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.2 5.9 -1.5 30.7 35.8 6.6 8.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 7.7 8.4 5.7 -1.6 26.4 35.0 8.7 10.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.8 -1.8 26.7 31.9 6.1 8.7 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.8 6.9 5.0 -1.9 24.9 32.2 7.3 9.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 6.0 5.8 7.3 -1.7 25.4 32.8 6.5 8.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.4 3.0 -1.7 22.4 32.0 3.1 4.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.1 7.6 7.2 -1.7 28.0 34.3 8.0 9.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.0 7.0 -1.8 24.8 31.7 6.7 9.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.9 6.7 7.4 -1.8 25.2 32.6 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.4 6.5 -1.9 25.5 32.0 7.9 9.7 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.8 5.9 -1.6 29.8 34.5 6.9 8.6 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.6 5.1 -1.4 27.4 34.2 8.0 9.1 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.9 6.6 -1.6 28.5 33.7 7.3 9.2 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.9 7.0 5.8 -1.6 30.4 35.3 7.2 8.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.7 2.4 4.2 -1.8 24.3 32.3 3.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.1 7.3 -1.7 26.4 33.2 6.6 8.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------