***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.7 -2.7 26.7 30.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 8.9 8.8 8.6 -2.7 26.2 30.0 9.9 11.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.4 8.8 8.9 -2.7 27.2 30.6 10.3 12.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 0.7 0.4 7.1 -2.5 26.6 32.5 1.1 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 9.2 9.4 7.5 -2.6 26.5 31.8 9.9 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.0 5.7 -2.5 27.8 32.4 8.4 10.8 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 8.1 8.8 8.5 -2.7 25.4 29.3 9.3 10.8 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -0.8 -1.7 6.0 -2.8 26.5 30.6 -1.6 1.8 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 9.5 9.1 8.0 -2.7 27.2 31.2 9.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.9 9.3 6.8 -2.8 26.9 31.0 9.9 12.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 9.0 9.1 7.2 -2.6 27.0 31.4 9.8 12.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 8.9 8.7 6.8 -2.8 26.1 30.4 9.2 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.2 9.2 6.3 -2.8 26.7 30.5 10.0 12.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 9.3 9.4 7.7 -3.0 26.4 30.4 10.7 12.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.0 7.4 -2.3 26.7 33.5 9.4 11.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.1 9.7 6.8 -2.7 26.8 31.3 10.2 12.9 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 8.2 7.7 8.4 -2.6 27.0 29.7 8.8 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 9.5 8.9 6.0 -3.1 27.0 30.1 9.4 12.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.0 8.4 8.8 -2.7 26.7 30.5 9.8 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.6 -3.1 26.0 29.0 5.0 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 9.4 9.5 8.5 -2.7 26.4 31.0 10.3 12.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 9.3 8.7 8.6 -2.6 28.9 30.6 9.6 12.1 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 9.7 9.2 8.8 -2.7 26.8 30.9 9.9 12.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 10.0 9.8 7.6 -3.0 26.6 30.5 10.6 12.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 8.2 7.7 7.3 -2.7 26.8 30.5 9.4 11.8 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 9.7 9.2 6.1 -2.7 24.3 29.8 9.8 12.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 8.0 9.2 7.9 -2.8 26.1 29.7 10.1 11.1 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.3 7.4 -2.5 26.5 32.9 9.3 12.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.4 4.0 5.0 -3.1 26.8 29.5 4.2 7.9 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 8.7 8.4 8.7 -2.7 26.8 30.1 9.7 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------