***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 -1.1 42.1 43.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.1 8.5 8.0 -1.1 40.5 43.1 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 7.1 10.5 8.4 -1.1 42.3 43.2 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.3 2.6 6.5 -1.0 42.8 44.2 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.1 11.2 6.9 -1.1 43.3 43.4 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.6 10.2 5.3 -1.0 44.2 43.8 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.3 7.7 7.9 -1.1 39.4 42.9 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.3 0.1 5.7 -1.1 42.3 43.0 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.5 11.2 7.4 -1.2 42.3 42.8 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.3 11.1 6.4 -1.2 42.0 43.0 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.6 11.4 6.7 -1.1 44.4 43.2 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.3 10.7 6.4 -1.1 43.5 42.7 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 7.9 11.4 5.9 -1.2 43.6 42.5 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.2 10.1 7.4 -1.2 38.2 43.1 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 6.1 7.7 6.7 -0.9 42.1 44.7 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.1 12.0 6.3 -1.1 45.0 43.0 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.4 7.7 -1.1 37.9 42.2 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 9.8 5.8 -1.2 40.7 43.2 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 6.7 8.4 8.3 -1.1 41.1 43.2 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.7 3.7 -1.1 40.7 42.7 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 7.4 10.8 8.0 -1.2 42.1 42.9 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.8 7.9 8.0 -1.1 37.4 42.2 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 7.1 9.9 8.3 -1.1 41.1 43.2 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 6.9 10.8 7.3 -1.2 39.7 43.1 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 7.0 9.1 6.7 -1.1 42.5 43.0 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 7.2 10.5 5.7 -1.1 40.8 42.0 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.9 7.3 -1.2 41.0 42.8 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.4 8.7 6.8 -0.9 43.6 44.6 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.4 4.9 -1.1 40.4 43.3 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.0 8.8 8.2 -1.1 41.1 43.3 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------