***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 -1.8 32.3 35.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.9 5.0 6.7 -1.8 32.3 35.4 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.5 7.0 -2.0 32.8 35.2 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 -0.3 4.8 -2.0 35.8 36.4 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.2 7.4 5.4 -2.0 35.2 36.4 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.6 4.1 -1.7 34.3 37.3 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.0 6.7 -1.7 32.2 36.1 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.0 -1.6 4.6 -1.8 34.7 37.0 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.4 6.1 -2.0 35.1 36.3 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.8 7.3 5.2 -1.9 34.2 36.7 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 7.5 5.3 -2.0 34.8 36.2 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.1 5.2 -1.9 33.2 36.3 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 8.0 4.8 -1.9 31.9 36.5 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.5 6.1 6.2 -2.1 31.6 35.4 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 4.6 4.8 -2.0 35.1 36.5 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.9 8.4 4.9 -2.0 34.5 36.2 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 4.2 4.5 6.4 -1.7 32.8 35.7 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.2 4.8 -1.8 33.2 37.1 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.9 4.8 6.9 -1.9 32.1 35.1 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.4 2.9 -1.4 35.8 39.4 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.8 7.4 6.6 -1.9 34.8 36.0 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.7 4.5 6.6 -1.9 31.3 35.0 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.4 5.9 7.0 -2.0 31.5 35.1 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.2 6.5 6.1 -2.0 32.2 35.7 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.0 5.3 -1.8 33.5 36.1 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.2 4.7 -1.6 32.6 37.7 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.8 6.1 -1.8 32.5 35.9 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 6.5 4.9 -2.0 35.4 36.3 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.1 4.0 -1.6 33.5 38.3 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 5.2 4.7 6.9 -1.8 32.2 35.4 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------