***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 5.7 -0.8 42.1 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.1 5.2 -1.2 39.5 40.5 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.7 5.3 5.8 -1.1 40.5 41.1 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.1 -0.9 3.1 -1.1 40.6 40.8 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.6 4.5 -0.9 44.1 43.6 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.2 3.4 -0.6 45.2 45.5 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.3 5.1 -1.2 41.2 41.1 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.7 -3.0 3.5 -1.1 39.4 41.7 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.1 5.5 -0.8 43.0 43.8 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.0 4.2 -1.1 39.7 41.7 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.5 4.7 -0.8 43.8 44.2 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.1 4.3 -0.8 43.2 43.5 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.2 4.7 -0.4 48.1 46.7 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.6 4.9 -1.8 35.8 37.1 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.0 4.5 -0.9 42.5 42.9 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.8 4.7 -0.5 46.7 45.6 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.2 3.5 4.5 -1.5 38.6 38.6 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.1 3.5 -1.4 38.0 39.4 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 3.6 5.4 -1.3 38.9 40.1 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.5 1.6 -1.4 34.0 38.9 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.7 5.8 5.8 -0.9 43.1 43.5 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.4 4.7 -1.6 37.9 37.6 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.0 5.6 -1.4 38.6 39.3 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.3 4.9 -1.5 38.7 39.0 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.7 4.5 -0.7 43.1 44.1 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.3 3.9 -0.4 46.5 46.2 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.4 5.2 -0.7 43.8 43.9 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.3 4.0 -1.0 41.8 41.7 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 0.7 2.8 -1.4 37.0 39.4 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.0 5.5 -1.1 40.3 41.4 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------