***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 35.0 42.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -2.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 34.4 41.1 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.6 34.3 42.1 0.7 1.8 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -6.4 -5.2 -2.4 -0.6 38.6 43.1 -5.9 -4.7 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -2.5 -1.3 -2.0 -0.5 38.8 43.1 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -3.7 -0.4 35.8 45.6 -2.2 -1.6 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 36.0 41.7 -0.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -9.0 -8.3 -3.4 -0.6 35.8 43.5 -8.4 -6.9 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 -1.6 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 38.4 43.4 -1.2 0.2 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 -1.8 -0.9 -2.8 -0.6 36.4 43.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 -2.0 -0.6 -2.3 -0.5 36.1 43.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -2.6 -0.5 35.6 44.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -0.9 -2.8 -0.4 36.4 45.0 -1.2 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 -1.7 -0.7 34.3 40.9 -0.9 0.5 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 -1.8 -0.5 37.2 43.2 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -1.3 -0.4 -2.6 -0.5 35.6 44.6 -0.5 0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -2.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 35.8 39.9 -1.0 -0.2 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -3.8 -2.6 -3.6 -0.7 36.3 42.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 33.6 41.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -7.3 -5.1 -5.2 -0.7 38.3 41.4 -6.3 -4.6 -3.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -2.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 37.7 42.3 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 -0.7 32.8 40.0 -1.3 -0.6 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 -0.5 -0.5 33.8 42.4 -1.4 -0.5 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -1.9 -1.5 -1.9 -0.6 34.0 42.2 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -1.7 -1.0 -1.5 -0.5 39.6 43.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -2.2 -1.0 -2.7 -0.4 37.7 45.0 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -1.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 37.4 43.1 -1.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -2.1 -0.6 36.6 42.9 -2.8 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -4.2 -0.7 36.9 42.2 -4.5 -3.6 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.6 34.4 41.9 -0.9 0.1 1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------