***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.4 -1.7 29.1 34.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 -1.6 30.6 33.6 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.2 1.2 0.2 -1.6 30.5 34.3 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -5.1 -5.0 -1.7 -1.5 31.0 35.6 -4.7 -3.4 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 27.5 35.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.7 -2.1 20.2 33.0 -1.7 -0.8 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 -1.6 30.2 33.7 -0.5 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -7.6 -7.7 -3.3 -2.0 23.2 33.3 -7.2 -6.6 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.8 26.9 33.9 -0.2 0.6 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 -2.6 -2.0 25.2 33.5 -0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 -1.0 -1.2 -2.0 -1.7 24.6 34.4 -0.4 0.9 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -2.3 -1.8 22.7 34.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -2.8 -1.9 22.5 33.7 -0.2 0.6 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -1.3 -2.0 25.4 32.1 0.3 1.5 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 -1.2 -1.6 29.4 35.5 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 -0.2 0.1 -2.3 -1.8 24.4 34.5 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -1.6 30.0 33.7 -0.3 0.6 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.4 -2.2 24.6 32.5 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 -1.6 30.9 34.0 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -2.3 24.8 31.5 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -1.7 29.4 34.2 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 0.1 -1.6 30.8 33.9 -0.3 0.2 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 -1.6 30.4 34.5 -0.4 0.3 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.9 26.3 32.8 -0.1 0.6 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.1 -1.7 28.8 33.5 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -2.6 -1.9 20.8 32.5 -0.3 0.4 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -1.8 28.1 33.5 0.3 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 28.9 35.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -4.1 -4.0 -4.2 -2.3 23.0 31.4 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -1.7 31.0 33.8 -0.2 0.5 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------