***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.5 -0.3 45.6 47.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -1.1 0.3 0.3 -0.2 45.1 48.9 -0.8 0.6 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 0.4 2.2 0.3 -0.4 43.3 48.3 1.2 3.0 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -7.3 -4.6 -2.0 -0.5 39.6 47.2 -5.1 -3.5 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 -1.8 -0.6 37.9 46.8 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 -3.2 -2.9 -3.7 -0.8 33.4 45.3 -2.9 -0.9 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -1.1 0.6 0.3 -0.2 46.5 48.5 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -9.4 -6.7 -3.3 -0.7 37.6 46.3 -8.2 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 -0.9 0.3 -1.2 -0.6 39.1 47.0 -0.5 1.2 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 -2.6 -0.7 39.9 46.9 -0.8 0.8 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 -1.5 -0.5 -2.1 -0.7 37.6 46.3 -0.8 0.3 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -2.0 -2.5 -0.7 37.3 46.1 -2.2 -0.4 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -0.7 -2.9 -0.7 37.8 45.3 -1.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -1.0 0.7 -1.2 -0.5 41.2 47.8 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 -1.6 -0.6 35.9 46.7 -0.5 0.8 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 -2.5 -0.6 37.9 46.2 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 -0.9 0.9 0.2 -0.3 46.2 48.0 -0.4 1.2 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -3.1 -2.1 -3.3 -0.6 40.8 47.6 -2.7 -1.4 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 -1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.2 44.9 48.9 -0.6 0.6 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -6.8 -5.7 -4.9 -0.6 40.2 46.8 -7.1 -4.0 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -1.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 43.3 47.1 -0.4 0.5 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -1.2 0.3 0.2 -0.4 45.0 47.3 -0.6 1.0 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 45.2 48.8 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -0.2 -1.5 -0.5 41.4 47.9 -0.8 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -1.1 0.6 -1.1 -0.5 44.3 46.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -2.7 -0.6 38.1 45.5 -1.5 -0.1 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 46.0 47.6 -0.5 0.7 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 -2.8 -1.7 -1.8 -0.6 37.4 47.1 -2.0 -1.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -2.2 -3.9 -0.6 41.6 47.5 -3.7 -1.6 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -1.0 0.2 0.4 -0.2 45.4 48.9 -0.4 1.1 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------