***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 32.6 38.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -2.0 -0.9 -0.9 34.5 38.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 28.3 37.9 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -3.4 -5.1 -3.3 -1.0 32.4 40.5 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -2.9 -1.1 31.1 40.4 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -3.5 -4.3 -0.6 36.3 46.6 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 35.9 39.2 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -9.0 -9.1 -3.9 -0.9 29.5 43.4 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 29.3 39.6 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 -2.7 -2.1 -3.5 -1.1 27.9 41.0 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.0 -1.0 31.1 41.8 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2 -0.9 30.3 44.0 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 -3.5 -0.8 32.5 44.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.6 -1.4 26.0 36.9 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 0.3 -2.2 -3.0 -1.1 31.6 40.2 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -3.4 -0.9 32.1 43.1 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 -1.1 34.4 38.0 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -4.5 -4.2 -4.2 -1.2 29.0 40.9 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 -3.1 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 32.0 38.3 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -9.4 -8.4 -5.3 -0.9 32.1 43.6 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -2.2 -1.5 -1.1 30.0 38.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 32.2 36.9 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -1.2 -1.0 29.9 37.9 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -2.7 -1.2 26.9 38.7 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -2.2 -2.3 -0.9 34.2 39.8 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 -2.6 -3.4 -3.1 -0.6 30.2 46.4 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 33.9 39.5 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -3.9 -3.1 -1.1 33.1 40.8 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -5.2 -4.8 -4.7 -1.1 30.7 41.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -3.0 -2.2 -0.8 -0.9 33.3 38.6 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------