***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 17.3 22.2 36.4 81.0 37.9 38.8 20.1 26.5 40.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 16.9 24.0 31.7 80.9 39.9 39.5 16.7 31.1 36.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 21.8 30.1 38.1 86.0 44.5 42.3 26.8 30.9 43.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 25.2 32.3 45.1 87.6 47.3 43.8 23.8 34.9 53.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 40.7 34.1 46.3 92.8 49.5 46.5 29.1 34.2 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 35.6 31.7 46.5 94.7 50.4 47.7 20.0 31.7 40.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.6 21.7 30.9 80.1 38.8 39.1 19.6 27.1 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 65.7 62.2 53.5 101.3 55.1 50.9 45.3 60.0 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.1 32.3 47.8 95.0 50.4 47.8 25.1 32.1 42.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 41.9 38.7 54.4 102.0 55.6 51.9 31.5 37.6 47.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 38.8 37.9 48.3 98.8 53.5 50.1 23.1 35.2 42.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 35.7 31.2 47.3 99.3 52.8 49.7 24.0 30.5 43.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 40.0 36.6 49.3 96.9 50.5 49.3 21.9 36.5 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 35.3 54.3 54.5 98.9 54.7 50.0 37.4 46.8 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 38.3 28.4 41.6 88.0 50.7 45.7 13.3 28.3 44.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.1 30.6 46.9 96.1 50.7 48.8 23.7 30.4 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 14.8 23.3 29.7 79.6 39.7 38.7 17.1 27.4 33.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 42.1 40.2 57.3 102.6 55.4 52.1 26.8 37.9 45.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.5 29.0 33.8 83.7 42.5 41.0 23.5 33.6 41.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 39.8 32.9 64.5 98.4 52.4 48.9 27.4 32.9 42.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.4 34.9 42.6 88.5 46.1 43.9 20.8 35.1 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.1 28.4 33.2 84.6 42.8 41.7 21.7 29.7 32.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 21.2 32.0 38.5 89.5 49.2 44.3 22.0 32.1 41.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 49.6 47.1 51.1 98.2 52.5 49.8 32.3 43.8 58.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 17.6 24.5 42.7 82.4 41.1 39.8 22.3 27.5 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.1 29.6 45.2 92.6 45.2 45.1 23.6 30.8 35.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 16.3 19.3 38.4 80.4 37.8 38.1 18.5 26.2 46.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 34.2 26.3 44.2 91.2 51.2 46.8 13.0 24.8 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 61.4 59.3 60.2 102.6 56.3 52.0 38.8 52.4 82.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.8 33.2 81.7 40.0 39.8 17.8 34.1 40.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------