***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.9 8.9 74.9 46.3 40.1 1.1 3.0 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 0.7 2.2 7.4 74.5 50.9 40.4 0.9 2.0 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.0 78.7 49.7 41.4 1.8 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.3 9.6 72.1 47.5 37.6 4.0 6.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 1.5 3.5 10.2 75.9 47.5 39.6 1.8 4.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.4 11.0 82.1 50.5 42.3 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.8 7.6 77.2 54.2 42.8 1.1 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 14.0 11.7 83.3 52.2 41.8 7.5 13.0 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.3 11.1 80.3 49.8 40.9 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.4 12.2 83.8 52.2 42.0 2.3 7.3 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.2 10.2 79.2 51.8 40.9 1.8 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.6 10.2 81.5 52.5 41.5 2.9 4.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.7 4.5 10.9 81.0 48.9 41.6 3.3 4.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.7 11.9 84.6 52.8 43.2 2.0 7.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.9 2.6 9.0 75.3 51.4 38.9 0.9 2.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 5.5 10.3 79.3 49.4 40.6 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.2 2.9 7.0 73.5 51.8 41.8 0.9 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.6 12.9 85.1 52.5 42.1 3.4 5.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.5 7.8 75.8 49.0 40.3 1.0 4.7 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.4 14.2 80.5 48.8 40.5 3.0 4.4 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.2 3.1 9.9 77.6 48.2 40.2 1.2 3.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.6 7.4 73.6 47.9 40.4 0.8 2.7 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 0.9 2.5 8.7 78.9 48.4 41.5 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.0 11.5 83.9 53.6 42.3 1.7 6.7 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.2 3.2 10.0 74.4 46.2 38.9 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.1 2.2 10.1 77.2 44.3 39.8 1.3 2.8 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.7 4.0 9.4 74.9 46.4 39.9 1.1 4.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.0 9.6 75.1 50.5 38.6 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.4 13.4 84.9 51.4 42.5 4.9 8.4 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 0.8 2.5 7.9 75.4 50.7 40.7 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------