***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.9 10.3 86.7 51.5 45.0 2.9 5.6 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.0 9.1 87.0 53.5 44.7 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.9 10.9 94.6 59.4 47.8 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.4 12.8 97.6 56.6 46.7 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.0 11.5 13.7 107.6 59.7 50.4 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.2 13.9 105.4 61.3 50.8 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.2 9.0 87.9 55.2 45.0 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 20.5 13.7 100.4 60.5 49.1 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.1 11.8 14.1 107.1 61.0 50.6 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.4 14.6 105.0 60.6 50.2 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.1 7.3 13.3 108.1 61.9 50.6 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.9 7.2 12.5 102.5 60.2 49.5 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.0 13.9 105.6 60.9 50.0 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.5 16.1 14.7 99.3 57.7 48.3 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.3 11.4 90.7 59.0 46.0 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.5 13.7 108.6 61.5 50.6 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 5.4 9.0 89.0 55.7 44.3 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.2 15.4 103.9 59.2 50.1 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.4 9.7 90.4 55.8 46.3 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.6 16.8 94.7 54.6 47.8 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.6 8.4 12.7 102.1 58.9 49.5 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.0 10.0 94.4 57.1 46.4 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.6 11.0 97.2 60.4 48.4 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.7 14.1 102.5 60.5 49.6 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.8 12.4 91.7 52.6 46.0 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.8 12.7 98.8 55.4 47.6 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.5 10.8 84.9 49.7 44.4 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.6 6.4 12.4 97.2 58.6 47.1 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 15.2 16.0 101.4 58.8 49.3 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.0 9.4 87.3 53.8 45.0 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------