***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.6 11.0 102.8 59.7 51.6 1.6 6.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.5 10.2 10.6 108.8 63.5 54.7 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.1 11.2 101.0 59.6 52.5 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.0 10.6 87.3 56.2 47.5 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.2 11.5 99.4 59.1 50.8 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.3 11.5 102.9 59.6 50.7 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.0 10.2 106.6 60.6 53.7 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 17.6 12.6 101.8 60.8 50.9 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.7 6.9 11.5 94.0 56.1 48.8 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.0 12.1 11.8 96.1 57.5 48.7 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.5 8.1 11.1 94.8 56.4 48.8 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.1 11.9 106.1 61.9 53.1 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.3 11.8 100.3 59.2 50.6 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.0 14.8 107.0 60.0 54.5 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.6 8.9 78.0 53.9 45.8 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.7 11.5 100.7 58.9 50.8 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.9 10.3 110.2 63.8 55.4 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.8 13.4 102.1 60.0 51.1 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.4 11.1 109.4 64.2 55.2 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 10.8 16.3 101.4 60.7 50.0 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.0 11.1 93.7 55.8 49.2 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.9 11.9 120.4 68.8 58.4 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.9 11.9 110.3 63.0 56.2 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.2 8.5 13.2 101.5 58.7 52.2 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.4 8.7 12.2 99.7 57.3 50.4 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.0 12.5 107.8 62.8 55.0 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.9 11.7 103.4 59.9 51.2 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.9 9.5 84.0 55.2 47.3 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 14.7 14.6 103.8 60.6 51.4 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.5 11.0 109.3 63.0 54.8 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------