***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.7 6.1 6.2 59.2 44.3 35.5 3.5 6.6 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 0.9 3.4 4.6 50.6 41.7 31.1 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.6 7.0 67.9 47.9 37.9 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.0 12.1 93.6 58.2 50.1 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.5 10.8 89.9 54.3 48.4 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.9 6.6 10.0 89.1 53.2 49.6 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 1.0 2.5 4.1 45.8 38.1 28.6 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.4 19.7 15.6 120.6 65.6 58.0 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.3 9.9 11.1 100.0 60.2 50.8 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.1 15.7 124.5 68.3 58.2 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.5 13.7 113.9 61.3 55.7 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.2 12.6 108.5 61.5 54.7 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.6 12.7 101.8 57.6 54.0 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.0 10.1 13.1 105.8 62.8 48.1 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.8 12.3 108.2 65.0 55.7 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.2 11.4 96.9 55.5 52.2 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.2 3.4 40.8 34.6 27.5 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.5 15.5 122.2 69.6 56.9 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.3 3.4 5.3 56.8 45.1 33.8 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 14.7 17.2 119.1 67.8 58.6 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.4 8.8 80.5 54.4 44.3 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.1 1.6 3.9 44.6 38.3 30.6 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.0 5.1 6.8 69.3 50.0 38.0 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.7 12.2 106.4 63.1 49.4 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.6 3.3 8.0 64.1 44.8 38.9 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.4 9.8 87.5 50.6 48.7 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.1 4.4 6.5 58.1 42.6 35.1 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.5 12.8 109.2 63.0 55.0 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.6 24.4 16.2 123.8 70.1 58.3 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.7 4.1 5.0 52.8 41.1 31.9 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------