***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 11.5 12.3 11.2 2.7 75.7 74.8 7.0 9.7 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 10.8 11.8 11.2 2.6 75.5 74.7 6.3 8.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.4 12.7 11.5 2.5 71.1 72.3 7.0 9.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.1 5.9 8.7 2.8 75.3 73.5 0.2 1.5 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 11.3 12.8 9.6 2.3 69.3 70.7 7.7 9.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 10.3 11.1 7.7 1.9 71.2 68.9 6.9 8.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.6 12.0 11.1 2.6 77.3 75.7 5.9 8.3 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 1.1 1.2 7.8 1.5 64.6 65.4 -1.7 -0.3 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 11.6 12.8 10.3 2.1 68.5 69.9 7.7 9.7 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 10.0 12.2 8.7 1.7 64.9 66.1 7.9 9.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 11.4 12.8 9.5 1.9 67.6 68.1 7.8 9.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 10.9 11.6 8.7 1.7 66.3 66.5 7.3 9.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 11.4 12.1 8.5 1.7 66.8 67.1 8.0 9.7 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 10.3 13.1 10.3 2.0 67.4 68.1 7.5 9.8 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 10.9 12.5 10.2 2.9 76.5 75.1 6.3 7.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.7 9.0 2.0 69.1 68.9 8.4 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.7 11.8 10.9 2.5 76.5 75.6 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 11.0 11.9 8.4 1.8 65.9 66.7 7.1 8.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 10.9 12.4 11.3 2.5 73.8 73.4 6.2 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 6.4 7.5 6.1 1.7 67.4 67.9 3.0 4.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 11.6 12.8 11.0 2.3 70.1 71.1 7.7 9.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.1 12.0 11.0 2.4 74.4 73.9 6.5 8.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 11.3 12.6 11.4 2.3 71.4 71.3 7.0 9.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 11.4 12.6 10.2 2.0 67.1 68.2 7.6 9.4 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.8 12.2 9.9 2.7 74.1 74.4 6.7 8.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 10.8 11.7 7.9 1.7 69.1 68.3 7.7 9.1 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 11.2 12.3 10.6 2.6 76.1 75.2 6.9 9.0 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.3 13.3 9.3 2.7 74.4 72.8 6.9 8.1 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 6.4 7.9 7.6 1.7 66.6 67.1 3.2 4.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 10.6 12.0 11.2 2.6 75.2 74.4 6.3 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------