***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.3 11.0 1.5 59.9 60.8 7.4 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.5 10.9 1.5 58.4 60.3 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.5 11.3 1.3 57.5 58.9 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.7 8.8 1.7 61.0 61.6 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 9.4 1.2 57.5 58.6 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.8 7.4 0.7 53.7 56.0 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.3 11.1 10.9 1.5 58.8 61.0 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.1 7.8 0.6 53.8 55.0 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.3 9.8 1.0 55.6 57.2 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.0 8.6 0.7 53.8 55.3 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.4 9.1 0.9 55.1 57.1 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.0 8.7 0.7 53.9 55.9 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.0 7.9 0.7 54.5 55.9 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.5 9.8 0.7 53.0 55.1 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.0 12.1 9.7 1.9 62.9 62.7 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.1 8.6 0.9 55.9 57.3 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.1 10.8 1.5 59.1 60.6 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.4 8.3 0.6 53.0 54.8 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.6 11.1 1.3 57.4 59.2 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.0 5.7 0.5 52.1 54.3 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 10.6 1.1 56.9 58.3 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 10.9 1.3 57.0 59.2 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.1 11.2 1.1 55.9 57.6 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.3 9.8 0.8 54.4 55.9 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 12.3 11.4 9.5 1.5 60.4 61.1 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.6 7.9 0.7 56.0 56.2 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.4 10.4 1.5 60.5 61.1 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.0 12.1 9.0 1.6 60.0 61.0 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.2 7.4 0.6 53.1 54.7 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.4 11.0 1.5 58.4 60.4 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------