***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.7 14.5 11.6 3.6 75.2 72.8 6.0 8.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.2 13.1 11.4 3.4 73.5 71.2 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.4 13.6 12.1 3.6 73.3 71.2 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 6.7 8.6 9.3 4.1 77.2 74.9 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.4 13.6 10.4 3.5 74.1 71.5 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.0 12.1 8.5 3.2 74.0 69.9 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.6 11.2 3.3 73.5 71.3 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 1.9 2.1 8.4 2.6 69.3 66.4 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.1 14.0 11.2 3.5 73.6 70.8 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 12.9 12.8 9.5 2.9 70.2 67.1 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 13.0 13.2 10.5 3.2 72.4 69.3 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.9 9.4 2.8 70.7 68.1 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 12.1 12.2 9.4 2.8 70.0 68.1 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.8 14.7 11.1 3.1 71.8 68.0 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.3 14.0 11.1 4.2 79.0 76.3 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.3 9.8 3.2 73.1 69.8 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.7 11.0 3.1 72.3 70.8 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.3 9.2 3.0 71.5 67.9 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.2 13.5 11.7 3.4 73.0 70.9 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.5 6.6 2.5 71.4 67.1 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.9 11.9 3.5 73.9 71.3 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.4 13.5 11.2 3.1 71.9 70.3 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.9 14.1 11.9 3.3 72.3 70.1 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.9 14.1 11.1 3.3 72.1 68.9 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 11.9 14.0 10.5 3.7 76.6 73.4 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.9 8.3 2.8 73.5 69.4 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.8 13.5 11.0 3.5 75.3 72.6 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.2 15.3 10.1 4.0 77.2 74.5 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.9 8.3 2.8 71.2 67.5 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.5 13.1 11.5 3.5 74.3 71.5 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------