***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 10.9 12.2 10.4 4.0 80.7 79.7 5.2 6.3 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 10.6 11.2 10.5 3.9 78.4 79.5 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 9.8 11.1 10.5 3.6 74.6 74.4 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 4.0 4.8 7.3 3.8 78.6 77.9 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 9.8 10.6 8.4 3.1 70.2 71.6 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.0 9.5 6.8 2.8 70.5 70.3 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 10.3 10.9 10.4 4.0 79.4 80.7 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -1.4 0.1 6.3 1.9 61.8 62.2 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 9.7 9.8 9.4 3.0 67.6 70.3 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 7.3 8.5 7.2 2.2 61.4 63.5 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 7.4 8.8 8.6 2.6 65.6 67.0 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 6.8 8.9 7.3 2.1 64.1 64.4 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 7.3 9.4 8.0 2.2 64.0 64.9 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 9.7 9.9 9.4 2.8 67.6 68.3 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 10.8 11.5 9.7 4.0 82.2 82.2 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 10.4 11.5 8.0 2.7 68.1 68.8 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 9.7 10.4 10.2 3.9 81.4 81.4 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 6.8 8.2 6.8 2.2 62.4 63.7 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 10.0 10.8 10.5 3.8 77.4 77.9 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 3.7 5.3 5.0 2.2 64.0 64.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 9.7 10.7 10.2 3.2 69.6 72.1 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 10.4 11.3 10.3 3.7 79.9 80.3 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 10.0 11.5 10.3 3.5 75.7 75.1 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 7.8 9.4 9.1 2.7 66.3 67.0 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 9.4 10.7 9.4 3.9 80.1 78.9 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 9.5 10.4 6.6 2.2 66.4 66.5 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 10.7 11.9 10.0 3.9 80.6 79.9 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 10.6 11.2 8.2 3.6 76.8 76.9 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 4.1 5.0 6.3 2.3 62.4 64.0 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 10.0 10.6 10.5 3.9 77.3 78.6 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------