***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 74.0 72.9 -0.8 0.4 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.2 74.5 74.3 -1.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 3.3 3.4 2.2 2.1 74.1 73.6 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -2.3 -1.7 0.0 2.5 77.3 76.6 -6.2 -4.6 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1 74.1 73.0 -1.7 -1.1 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.6 -2.0 2.0 74.4 72.4 -2.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.2 75.5 74.3 -1.0 -0.3 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -5.3 -5.1 -2.1 1.7 70.7 68.8 -8.7 -6.8 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 1.3 1.4 0.2 1.9 72.2 72.1 -1.1 0.3 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 0.8 1.0 -1.4 1.8 71.3 70.1 -1.3 0.0 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 0.4 0.5 -0.6 1.9 72.9 71.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 1.7 71.3 69.3 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 0.3 0.6 -1.4 1.7 72.4 70.3 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 1.4 1.3 0.1 1.8 70.5 70.4 -1.0 0.5 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 1.2 1.9 1.2 2.4 79.9 78.0 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 1.3 1.2 -1.0 1.9 73.0 71.6 -0.5 0.2 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 1.1 1.3 2.2 2.3 74.8 75.3 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 1.7 70.1 69.5 -2.8 -1.9 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.1 74.1 73.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -3.7 -3.6 -3.6 1.3 67.9 66.5 -6.4 -4.5 -3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 73.3 72.6 -1.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 0.6 0.8 2.1 2.2 74.2 75.2 -1.4 -0.8 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 0.2 0.4 1.7 2.0 73.2 72.4 -1.3 -0.7 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.9 71.5 71.5 -1.6 -0.2 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.2 75.5 73.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.5 -1.6 1.7 72.4 70.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 74.8 72.8 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 2.3 76.5 75.6 -2.7 -1.2 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 -2.0 -1.7 -2.7 1.5 68.3 67.4 -4.5 -3.7 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.1 74.7 73.9 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------