***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 60.0 60.7 -0.5 0.3 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 0.8 1.4 2.2 1.5 63.0 61.5 -1.1 0.4 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 3.1 3.5 2.4 1.5 60.9 62.0 1.1 2.8 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -1.7 -0.2 1.8 61.6 62.9 -5.5 -4.1 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 58.3 61.3 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.4 -2.2 1.4 57.3 60.4 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.5 61.8 60.8 -0.8 0.7 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -5.5 -6.1 -2.3 1.0 51.8 57.1 -7.8 -6.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.5 57.4 60.7 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.6 -1.5 1.2 52.7 58.5 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 0.8 0.6 -0.7 1.4 56.1 60.3 -1.1 0.4 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 1.3 54.0 58.8 -2.4 -0.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 0.2 0.2 -1.7 1.3 52.7 58.9 -1.1 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.2 0.1 1.2 56.8 59.4 0.1 1.1 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 2.0 2.7 1.0 1.9 64.8 65.2 -0.7 0.4 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.1 -1.2 1.4 55.8 60.2 -0.5 0.8 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.5 62.1 61.5 -0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 0.9 50.4 56.6 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.4 62.6 61.7 -0.8 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -4.5 -4.4 0.2 45.4 51.4 -7.2 -3.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 59.6 61.2 -0.9 0.3 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.5 61.8 61.6 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.4 60.2 61.3 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.2 -0.2 1.3 55.4 59.8 -0.9 0.0 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 61.4 61.6 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 0.6 0.6 -1.9 1.2 54.5 58.7 -1.6 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 60.4 60.2 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.7 61.1 63.0 -2.2 -1.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -2.1 -3.0 0.6 48.7 54.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.5 61.4 61.4 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------