***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 1.6 1.9 1.4 2.9 75.1 75.2 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 0.9 1.4 1.4 3.2 78.6 78.9 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 3.3 3.5 1.6 2.9 75.7 75.4 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 3.7 85.0 83.0 -7.3 -6.3 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 0.3 0.8 0.3 3.1 77.2 76.8 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.7 3.0 77.0 77.7 -4.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 1.4 1.7 1.4 3.3 79.0 79.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 -4.9 -4.0 -1.8 2.8 74.9 74.3 -10.1 -8.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 1.3 1.4 0.0 2.8 76.7 76.9 -2.6 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 0.4 0.4 -1.3 2.8 74.6 75.0 -3.0 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 0.4 0.8 -0.2 2.7 76.3 76.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 2.5 74.0 73.9 -4.3 -2.8 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 2.3 71.2 72.2 -3.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 0.7 0.8 -0.3 2.6 71.7 72.4 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.7 1.1 3.2 86.7 85.8 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 1.3 1.2 -0.6 2.6 75.0 75.4 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 0.7 1.4 1.5 3.4 82.4 82.4 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -1.7 -1.4 -1.7 2.8 75.0 74.9 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 0.6 0.8 1.2 3.0 77.0 77.4 -3.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -4.7 -4.5 -3.0 2.7 71.3 71.5 -8.6 -7.2 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 1.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 75.6 75.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.3 83.6 83.3 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 2.7 74.9 75.2 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 2.7 74.4 75.0 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 0.3 0.5 1.1 3.2 77.6 76.8 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 2.5 73.8 73.3 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 1.1 0.9 1.2 3.0 75.8 75.5 -3.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 -1.0 -0.4 0.2 3.2 82.1 81.4 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -0.7 -2.6 2.7 72.3 72.7 -6.9 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 1.4 1.6 1.5 3.0 77.1 77.3 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------