***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 34.8 80.5 35.8 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 17.8 21.6 34.5 83.3 37.4 37.7 16.7 31.1 36.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.4 24.5 35.8 79.0 30.7 36.3 26.8 30.9 43.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 21.2 21.4 38.7 72.3 30.4 32.3 23.8 34.9 53.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 21.1 26.5 39.2 75.9 28.9 33.8 29.1 34.2 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 19.7 18.9 41.9 75.0 30.1 32.5 20.0 31.7 40.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 14.8 20.9 34.3 86.0 37.4 38.5 19.6 27.1 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 44.3 44.8 42.3 78.4 30.9 35.9 45.3 60.0 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 19.8 23.1 40.1 78.5 29.4 35.2 25.1 32.1 42.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.8 29.7 43.7 80.3 31.6 36.9 31.5 37.6 47.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 17.5 22.0 37.6 76.1 30.0 34.4 23.1 35.2 42.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 18.9 23.2 36.8 76.2 30.4 34.6 24.0 30.5 43.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 23.6 19.8 38.9 74.4 27.8 32.4 21.9 36.5 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 34.9 38.1 46.4 83.9 35.4 38.8 37.4 46.8 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 13.0 11.6 35.3 68.2 29.3 32.7 13.3 28.3 44.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 18.7 22.7 37.3 73.4 29.0 32.4 23.7 30.4 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.4 24.7 33.7 86.3 41.1 39.1 17.1 27.4 33.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.1 28.8 49.9 83.7 34.9 39.3 26.8 37.9 45.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.5 25.3 35.2 81.5 35.5 37.1 23.5 33.6 41.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 23.5 27.4 55.8 80.9 32.3 37.7 27.4 32.9 42.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.0 37.0 78.0 31.4 35.0 20.8 35.1 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 19.1 27.4 35.7 85.9 40.2 39.3 21.7 29.7 32.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.7 37.6 80.9 34.9 36.9 22.0 32.1 41.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 29.8 32.4 44.6 82.4 34.5 38.3 32.3 43.8 58.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 16.7 20.9 40.9 79.0 30.4 34.8 22.3 27.5 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.3 37.7 73.4 29.0 32.1 23.6 30.8 35.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 18.0 18.6 39.4 82.4 33.4 36.6 18.5 26.2 46.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 14.6 12.4 36.4 69.2 29.8 32.2 13.0 24.8 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 40.7 39.1 53.1 83.7 34.0 39.3 38.8 52.4 82.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 20.3 19.7 34.6 82.3 35.2 37.3 17.8 34.1 40.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------