***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 117.5 66.7 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 2.9 4.3 9.6 106.0 63.4 52.2 0.9 2.0 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.0 11.2 113.8 65.7 54.3 1.8 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 12.1 105.6 65.0 54.0 4.0 6.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 7.8 12.9 116.6 68.0 56.7 1.8 4.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.9 14.4 114.9 60.6 55.8 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 4.1 9.8 113.5 65.1 54.0 1.1 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 16.6 13.5 111.3 64.6 54.2 7.5 13.0 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.3 8.0 13.6 125.5 69.3 58.5 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.4 14.5 121.5 68.7 57.1 2.3 7.3 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.3 12.1 111.0 64.4 54.6 1.8 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.1 11.4 106.1 62.0 53.4 2.9 4.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.6 12.6 110.0 59.5 54.9 3.3 4.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.0 14.7 120.5 63.3 56.4 2.0 7.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 6.2 10.7 94.2 63.4 50.9 0.9 2.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.8 11.8 106.0 58.9 53.7 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.6 9.4 114.1 64.9 55.0 0.9 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 10.6 16.8 127.0 69.7 58.7 3.4 5.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.9 10.1 105.6 63.6 52.5 1.0 4.7 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.2 17.9 114.9 65.4 55.9 3.0 4.4 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.1 5.5 12.3 123.4 70.1 56.4 1.2 3.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.3 3.8 9.8 110.5 65.9 53.8 0.8 2.7 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.8 6.1 11.4 111.4 65.1 54.9 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.9 14.8 124.2 66.9 57.7 1.7 6.7 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.5 12.8 118.7 66.4 55.8 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.8 11.8 102.5 58.9 53.5 1.3 2.8 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.7 12.0 118.8 66.3 54.8 1.1 4.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.8 11.2 96.5 62.4 51.5 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.0 17.6 124.0 68.5 57.7 4.9 8.4 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.9 9.9 107.2 64.1 52.3 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------