***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 88.6 47.3 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.1 10.7 91.2 54.1 45.9 2.1 5.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.1 10.7 87.0 51.6 44.7 2.0 7.8 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.9 12.2 81.4 50.8 42.7 4.1 6.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.3 11.9 81.9 49.8 42.7 2.6 6.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.2 3.3 13.0 74.1 45.0 43.8 2.7 4.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.7 4.9 10.7 94.4 53.4 46.3 1.7 3.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 15.7 13.7 86.1 54.1 47.4 8.6 13.8 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.2 11.7 81.9 47.2 42.7 1.5 4.2 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.8 13.3 84.3 51.1 45.4 2.3 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.7 11.9 83.4 52.0 45.2 1.8 4.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.0 12.2 85.7 54.7 47.5 2.3 3.8 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.3 12.7 79.4 48.5 44.9 2.5 6.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 11.7 13.6 84.8 49.5 45.2 4.5 12.1 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.3 11.8 80.8 55.7 44.6 1.6 5.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.1 12.0 78.8 48.1 44.4 4.2 6.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.5 10.6 90.5 53.2 45.7 0.9 3.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.7 14.9 85.3 50.9 45.8 2.0 6.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.4 10.8 88.5 53.1 45.3 2.1 6.4 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 17.4 84.1 51.1 46.2 2.7 7.9 10.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 2.9 10.9 84.8 49.1 43.6 1.9 3.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.4 10.6 86.0 49.8 44.7 1.4 6.4 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.0 11.2 86.3 52.4 44.8 2.7 7.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.4 9.2 13.2 85.2 51.1 45.3 2.6 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.7 5.5 12.3 87.1 48.8 44.0 0.7 5.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.2 12.7 82.8 52.3 46.3 1.3 4.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.5 11.7 89.8 48.8 44.7 1.4 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.3 11.7 76.9 51.0 42.8 1.8 3.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 12.2 16.0 85.1 50.9 45.7 4.6 12.0 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.6 90.5 52.7 45.6 2.4 4.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------