***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 47.1 32.9 27.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.8 3.5 5.2 51.3 35.2 29.1 3.0 5.0 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.5 3.8 5.1 47.7 33.0 28.2 3.8 5.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.4 2.7 5.0 41.4 31.5 26.4 2.8 7.4 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.8 42.1 29.9 26.8 4.3 6.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 1.8 2.6 6.0 45.8 26.4 26.1 3.7 6.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.2 3.0 5.2 51.9 36.0 29.4 2.1 5.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.4 7.5 5.7 48.0 29.9 28.7 7.9 11.4 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.4 3.0 5.1 44.2 30.0 26.9 3.3 6.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.4 4.5 5.8 48.0 29.7 28.4 4.7 7.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.0 2.6 4.5 42.0 28.5 26.1 2.8 5.5 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.6 3.7 4.7 43.8 30.1 26.8 4.4 7.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.3 2.6 4.9 40.7 26.1 25.2 3.9 7.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.2 6.4 51.3 33.2 30.3 5.2 10.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.4 0.5 5.0 42.7 35.7 27.3 0.2 5.9 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.7 2.5 4.5 40.2 27.1 25.0 4.1 6.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 3.1 5.8 5.1 52.3 36.7 29.7 5.3 7.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.4 4.2 7.1 53.1 33.1 29.8 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.0 3.8 5.2 50.2 35.0 28.7 3.1 5.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 3.9 4.9 8.6 54.5 34.1 30.4 4.6 8.6 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.3 4.7 42.4 31.8 26.1 3.4 5.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.6 55.9 36.7 30.6 4.0 9.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.4 49.8 35.1 29.0 2.9 5.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.3 5.6 6.2 50.5 34.3 29.5 5.4 7.6 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.3 5.9 46.7 31.9 27.7 1.8 4.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.6 2.7 5.1 43.6 28.7 27.2 3.1 7.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 1.7 1.7 5.9 49.9 33.2 28.3 1.7 5.3 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.8 4.7 41.1 32.5 26.4 1.9 6.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.0 6.4 7.8 54.7 34.0 30.2 6.3 11.8 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.3 4.1 5.3 51.5 34.8 28.8 4.1 6.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------