***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 8.6 73.2 51.5 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.0 3.8 8.9 85.7 55.1 49.6 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.5 5.9 8.8 70.5 48.6 44.2 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.1 9.5 62.6 44.0 40.8 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.0 5.6 9.6 65.8 43.2 42.1 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.5 8.4 66.9 48.3 41.8 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.3 8.6 86.8 53.9 48.7 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.2 9.4 66.9 43.0 42.0 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.8 67.4 41.9 43.0 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.9 10.2 69.1 43.0 42.8 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.1 9.1 67.5 42.6 42.5 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.4 8.5 67.4 45.6 42.3 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.8 9.1 8.7 68.1 50.0 42.5 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.5 6.7 11.6 80.1 54.7 48.1 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.3 7.8 55.8 44.0 41.0 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.0 8.9 67.8 46.9 42.9 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.2 8.7 92.1 58.8 52.0 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.3 11.1 71.2 45.2 43.2 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.0 9.1 82.7 53.4 49.0 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 7.7 11.9 70.1 46.1 42.4 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.0 9.1 67.0 44.0 42.8 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.4 9.6 93.9 59.5 53.8 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.3 9.6 77.5 51.3 46.8 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.0 5.9 10.5 71.9 45.9 44.1 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.8 3.9 9.9 69.5 47.9 42.8 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.4 8.0 63.4 49.8 41.9 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.1 9.8 76.1 50.0 44.7 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 8.7 61.5 44.8 41.5 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 12.8 11.6 72.4 44.7 43.5 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.7 8.8 81.3 53.0 47.9 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------