***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 3.5 93.1 86.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 11.9 13.8 11.6 3.2 92.1 85.5 6.3 8.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 12.5 14.2 12.0 3.4 92.2 85.7 7.0 9.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 5.4 7.7 9.8 3.6 92.4 86.1 0.2 1.5 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 12.7 15.2 10.5 3.7 93.0 86.7 7.7 9.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 11.4 13.7 9.1 3.6 93.7 87.6 6.9 8.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 11.6 13.2 11.5 3.2 92.2 85.8 5.9 8.3 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 2.0 3.6 9.4 3.4 92.6 86.5 -1.7 -0.3 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 12.9 14.7 11.2 3.6 92.2 86.1 7.7 9.7 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 12.8 14.6 10.2 3.5 92.1 86.0 7.9 9.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 12.8 15.2 10.4 3.6 92.8 87.0 7.8 9.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 11.9 14.2 10.0 3.4 92.7 86.4 7.3 9.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 12.4 14.5 9.7 3.4 93.0 86.5 8.0 9.7 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 12.9 14.1 11.1 3.1 88.7 82.6 7.5 9.8 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 12.0 14.6 10.1 3.5 90.4 85.3 6.3 7.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 13.1 15.0 10.0 3.5 93.1 86.7 8.4 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 11.6 12.8 11.2 3.0 90.5 84.8 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 12.5 14.0 9.7 3.3 91.5 84.8 7.1 8.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 12.1 13.7 11.8 3.2 91.8 85.0 6.2 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 7.5 10.2 7.5 3.3 93.0 86.5 3.0 4.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 12.8 14.6 11.7 3.5 92.4 86.2 7.7 9.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 12.1 13.4 11.3 2.9 89.1 83.6 6.5 8.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 12.2 14.0 11.9 3.1 91.0 84.0 7.0 9.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 12.7 13.9 11.1 3.3 90.8 83.9 7.6 9.4 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 12.1 14.0 10.4 3.6 93.1 86.9 6.7 8.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 11.7 14.6 9.2 3.3 93.0 86.9 7.7 9.1 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 12.1 13.9 11.1 3.5 93.1 87.0 6.9 9.0 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 12.9 15.6 10.2 3.6 91.2 85.9 6.9 8.1 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 7.7 9.8 8.7 3.3 91.9 85.2 3.2 4.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 11.7 13.7 11.8 3.3 92.3 85.9 6.3 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------