***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 1.3 62.3 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.6 11.8 1.2 62.1 58.2 8.9 11.1 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.1 12.0 1.1 61.5 57.5 9.6 11.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.3 10.0 1.4 64.0 59.5 1.0 3.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.0 13.3 10.3 1.2 59.2 57.7 9.0 11.3 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.2 8.6 1.1 59.5 57.3 7.8 9.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.0 11.7 1.2 61.9 58.6 9.1 10.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.8 2.2 8.8 0.9 57.6 55.8 -1.4 1.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.8 10.8 1.0 58.4 56.4 9.5 11.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.9 13.1 9.6 0.8 58.5 55.4 9.0 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.9 13.1 9.9 1.0 59.2 56.9 9.0 11.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.6 11.5 9.6 0.9 57.0 56.2 8.9 10.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.7 9.1 0.9 57.9 56.2 9.7 11.3 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.5 10.7 0.7 54.7 54.8 9.6 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.1 10.3 1.5 64.1 60.5 8.4 11.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 13.3 9.6 1.1 60.3 57.0 9.9 11.2 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.9 11.5 1.1 59.9 57.4 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.9 8.9 0.7 56.9 54.2 9.0 10.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.8 12.0 1.1 61.0 57.6 9.0 11.0 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.8 6.5 0.8 58.2 55.3 4.6 7.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.2 11.5 1.1 58.7 57.1 9.5 11.1 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.5 11.6 1.0 57.4 56.2 9.2 11.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.9 11.9 1.0 58.6 56.6 9.5 11.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.1 10.6 0.8 57.3 55.1 10.2 11.3 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.5 10.3 1.3 60.4 58.8 8.3 10.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.2 8.8 0.9 58.9 56.0 9.7 10.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.0 11.1 1.2 60.7 58.4 9.4 10.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.6 10.2 1.4 63.9 59.3 8.3 11.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.6 7.8 0.7 56.6 54.3 4.1 6.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.4 12.0 1.2 62.4 58.4 9.0 10.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------