***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 2.5 77.0 72.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.6 11.6 2.2 75.0 70.1 7.6 10.5 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.6 11.9 2.4 75.8 70.5 8.6 11.5 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.6 6.8 9.9 2.8 79.2 72.3 0.1 3.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.9 10.3 2.6 78.0 71.1 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.2 13.1 8.8 2.6 78.2 70.4 7.4 10.1 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.2 11.5 2.3 75.9 70.7 7.2 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 2.5 3.7 9.0 2.4 74.2 68.9 -0.6 0.6 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.3 13.8 10.9 2.5 76.6 69.8 9.1 12.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 13.2 13.7 9.8 2.4 73.0 68.9 8.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.3 14.2 10.1 2.5 76.3 70.3 8.6 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.3 13.5 9.7 2.4 75.7 69.0 8.3 10.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.3 14.1 9.3 2.4 75.4 69.2 8.9 11.4 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 14.2 13.9 10.8 2.1 70.5 66.6 9.4 12.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.0 14.4 10.0 2.8 78.7 72.8 5.8 10.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.5 9.7 2.5 76.9 70.4 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 12.2 13.0 11.2 2.1 74.9 69.5 7.0 9.6 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 12.9 13.8 9.2 2.3 72.3 67.6 9.0 11.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.0 11.7 2.2 74.5 69.7 7.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.9 6.9 2.3 76.3 68.7 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.9 11.5 2.5 76.6 70.5 9.0 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.7 11.3 2.0 73.7 68.5 7.1 10.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.8 11.8 2.2 73.3 68.8 9.1 11.8 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.7 10.7 2.2 72.3 67.7 9.1 12.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.7 13.7 10.2 2.6 78.7 72.3 7.4 10.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.6 9.0 2.3 76.7 69.3 9.4 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.8 11.0 2.5 77.5 72.0 7.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.2 14.5 10.1 2.8 78.7 72.1 6.2 10.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 7.8 8.6 8.2 2.2 73.4 67.3 4.3 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.8 13.6 11.7 2.3 76.0 70.7 7.7 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------