***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 4.1 83.0 77.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 12.0 13.6 11.8 4.0 82.2 77.4 4.4 7.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 13.5 15.9 12.1 4.2 83.1 77.2 6.2 7.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 7.2 9.3 9.6 4.0 81.3 75.7 -0.1 1.6 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 13.1 16.2 10.4 4.2 85.6 76.8 6.3 8.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 11.7 14.8 8.8 3.8 85.1 74.9 5.9 7.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 11.9 13.4 11.6 4.0 83.4 77.8 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 2.4 3.8 9.7 4.2 85.4 77.7 -2.1 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.9 16.3 11.2 4.3 85.4 77.0 7.0 9.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 13.9 16.2 10.4 4.3 85.2 77.4 6.6 9.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 14.0 16.3 10.3 4.2 85.9 77.1 6.3 9.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 12.7 14.7 10.2 4.1 84.3 77.1 6.7 8.3 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 13.2 15.6 9.5 3.9 84.5 76.4 7.1 9.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 13.9 16.1 11.7 4.3 81.5 77.1 6.2 8.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 12.4 14.0 9.4 3.7 78.4 73.8 4.5 7.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.0 16.5 9.8 4.0 85.1 76.2 7.5 9.9 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 11.2 12.4 11.4 3.9 81.5 77.3 4.2 6.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 13.9 15.8 10.3 4.4 85.0 77.9 7.1 9.0 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 12.4 14.3 12.1 4.1 81.8 77.3 4.6 6.6 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 8.1 10.1 8.1 4.3 87.2 79.1 2.4 4.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 13.6 15.8 11.6 4.2 84.3 76.8 6.8 8.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 12.4 14.0 11.7 3.9 81.6 76.9 4.6 7.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 13.2 15.0 12.3 4.2 81.1 77.1 5.3 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 13.8 15.9 11.5 4.3 83.5 77.3 6.6 9.8 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.5 14.7 10.1 4.1 84.1 76.9 5.7 7.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 11.9 14.5 9.1 3.7 84.7 76.8 6.7 9.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 12.5 15.3 10.9 4.1 84.3 77.6 6.3 7.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 13.6 16.1 9.7 3.9 80.8 74.6 5.8 8.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 9.0 10.8 9.5 4.5 85.9 78.7 2.9 5.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 12.4 13.9 11.9 4.1 82.4 77.5 4.4 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------